Original title: Are Bets on Fed Rate Cuts Overdone?
00:00 Is that too much complacency out there, do you think? I certainly think that is the case. I mean, looking at hedge funds, kind of betting on shorting the VIX, the most we’ve seen in three years really does suggest that they expect this comp to persist. I think we expect greater volatility if we do see some of this economic data materially surprise to the upside of the downside, just given that equities have really been predicated on the Fed easing coming through quite materially. We have about five rate cuts priced in by the July meeting and this is occurring against a backdrop where the inflation uncertainty still remains kind of unknown. Because if we think about, you know, yes, we’re starting to see goods inflation that’s expected to grind higher over the coming months. But last month, the super core inflation measure is actually what surprised to the upside if we start to see signs of services, inflation accelerating or wages accelerating, I think that could put, you know, so